The Economist
"Tsunami for Portugal"
segunda-feira, novembro 22, 2004

Deve ser por causa deste outlook que o executivo de Santana Lopes fala de mudança para melhor, de uma onda de transformação.

Sistema Político

At the beginning of November the entire editorial board of the respected daily newspaper, Diario de Noticias, resigned, citing political intervention in its editorial decisions. The newspaper belongs to the media group Lusomundo, which was recently taken over by the state-owned Portugal Telecom. The high-profile resignations are likely to taint the government further with allegations of tampering with the freedom of the press.

Governo

The Economist Intelligence Unit believes that the risk of an early election being called before the end of the current parliamentary term in March 2006 has increased.

Crescimento Económico

Assuming that political uncertainty has not caused domestic demand to collapse in the second half of the year, we expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2004 and to accelerate to 2.1% in 2005 and 2.4% in 2006. After widening in 2004, the current-account deficit is forecast to narrow slightly over the forecast period, reflecting a widening surplus on the services balance

Défice

The 2005 draft budget contains income tax cuts for low and middle incomes and proposes to raise the salary of civil servants by 2.2% in 2005, following a two-year freeze imposed by the previous government. Increased spending is to be financed by measures to fight tax evasion and an increase in taxes on tobacco, but we believe that that the general government budget deficit will be wider than the projected 2.8% of GDP

Publicado por António Duarte 14:33:00    

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